A portrait will be displayed within the grounds of Abergavenny’s castle over the festival weekend which will be decorated with flowers and visitors are invited to view this display and take a moment for quiet reflection. There will also be an opportunity to sign a book of condolence and light a candle at St Mary’s Priory Church.

Baker! - Michelle Evans-Fecci All rise for Tenby’s Finest Baker! - Michelle Evans-Fecci

Michelin star chef Freddy Bird's first and family-owned independent restaurant, Little French, specialises in big flavours and modern European cooking. Here, you'll have a taste at what he cooks up in his kitchen. Place the cooled bacon, onions and chard leaves into the base of the crust, top with grated cheese, then arrange the chard stems in a circular pattern starting from the outside and working inwards, shaping the chard with your hands as you go. Michelle's favourite pavlova, bursting with seasonal fruit, features on the cover of her new book. Picture: Ben FecciI decorate my Christmas cakes a week before eating, by warming a little apricot jam and brushing a thin layer on the top and sides of the cake. Roll out the marzipan on a worktop lightly dusted with icing sugar and, using the rolling pin to help, lift the marzipan onto the cake, smoothing the top and sides. Repeat with the rolled fondant icing and decorate the cake as you wish.

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Oh, there are so many! One that I love is my multicolour carrot tart. It’s a puff pastry sheet, and then it’s made with beetroot and cream cheese, which is whipped and spread on the base, which you top with carrots roasted with maple and pecan. You can use purple carrots, yellow ones, orange ones and they are then nicely arranged on the top. That’s one I make often because it looks so impressive, but it’s so easy to make! Michelle grew up on a farm and learned from a young age how to grow vegetables and the basics of cooking and baking. She now lives in the beautiful seaside town of Tenby in Pembrokeshire with her husband Ben, their teenage son Alfie, little whippet Rosie, and two cheeky hens. As a family they love to be out in the garden where they grow a lot of the fruit, vegetables and herbs that Michelle uses in her everyday cooking. The book shows just how easy and rewarding it is to grow your own produce. Whisk the two whole eggs with the cream and season with salt and pepper. Fill the tin halfway with the creamy mixture, then transfer it onto the shelf of the oven and fill to the top. Bake for 25–30 minutes until golden with a slight wobble in the centre. Chef Anna Shepherd and the Lea-Wilsons - the family behind Halen Mon sea salt - will demonstrate recipes from their new book which dives into one of the most important pantry items: A Celebraton of Sea Salt

Michelle Evans-Fecci - Northbank Talent Management

Our modeling approach follows two steps 29. We first use the time series TSIR model, a discrete time adaptation of the SIR model 14, 41, to estimate the unobserved susceptible population for each location over time. Next, we use the estimated susceptible time series to construct an empirical transmission rate. The transmission rate is used as a dependent variable in a panel regression where the effect of climate is estimated. The TSIR model May is another huge month for bakers because we have graduations, wedding season beginning, Mother’s Day, teachers’ appreciation, recitals, and extracurricular activities with the school year wrapping up. Proms happen in May as well as first communions and Memorial Day weekend Michelle was known on the TV show for her flavoursome, colourful bakes and for championing seasonal, locally sourced and homegrown produce. Whether it’s a simple loaf for breakfast or a striking showstopper cake for a celebration, she loves using seasonal food to create tasty recipes for the whole family to enjoy.The uncertainty in the size of simulated epidemics depends on the relative role of precipitation in driving the transmission cycle in a particular location. For instance, the seasonal cycle of RSV in Sonora is mostly driven by changes to humidity (Supplementary Fig. 11), meaning that deviations from mean precipitation do not alter cycle dynamics. However, in Oaxaca, where humidity remains constant throughout the year, differences in future rainfall across CMIP5 models result in divergent cycle dynamics. High precipitation results in a bifurcation, leading to biennial outbreak cycles.